Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

December's end-of-year options expiration brought an unexpected drop as realized volatility fell to the lowest levels of the month. Perpetual swap open interest remained stable, indicating these markets weren't heavily used for hedging against expired options, likely contributing to the muted volatility. 

While most expired open interest in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) hasn't been reinvested, the balance of calls and puts remains consistent. Notably, ETH options are pricing in higher implied volatility as compared to BTC, particularly for shorter expirations, leading to a flat term structure for ETH, while BTC is offering cheaper options exposure.

In the perpetual markets, low volatility and minimal spot movements have led funding rates for nearly all tokens to mirror broader market sentiment throughout the holiday season. On the options side, BTC's term structure is noticeably lower and steeper than ETH's, with realized volatility now dipping below implied volatility levels, highlighting an intriguing shift in market dynamics.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Open Interest Solid Amid Year-End Options Expiration

Although open interest for both BTC and ETH perpetual swaps hasn’t returned to early December 2024 highs, it remained robust throughout the significant end-of-year options expiration event. This suggests that these markets weren’t heavily utilized to 

 of the expiring options contracts, likely contributing to the lack of volatility observed during this period. Instead, trading volumes have dipped noticeably during the winter holiday season, coinciding with a collapse in realized volatility back to December 2024’s lowest levels.

BTC Option Curve Remains Steep During Call-Put Parity

The expiration of December's end-of-year options didn’t trigger the anticipated surge in volatility; instead, realized volatility has plummeted to the lower end of its recent range. The implied volatility term structure remains steep compared to both its recent behavior and ETH's, with longer-dated implied volatility around 57%, and 1-week at-the-money options trading about five points lower. Much of the expired open interest hasn’t yet been rolled into new positions, maintaining a neutral balance between puts and calls. Consequently, BTC's options market positioning is relatively neutral, lacking the leverage it had at the start of December 2024.

Huge ETH Option Expiring Doesn’t Cause Volatility

A late December spike in realized volatility didn’t carry into the new year, with ETH’s spot price currently exhibiting volatility below that of short-tenor implied volatility. Interestingly, the implied volatility term structure has undergone a steepening and re-flattening over the past week, contrasting with BTC’s slightly steeper profile. This suggests that ETH’s options market is anticipating higher short-term volatility in spot price movements. 

Despite the significant expiration of options open interest at the end of December 2024, which didn’t lead to a rollover into later expirations, call options continue to dominate the market and have increased at the start of 2025.

Advanced

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Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Jan 2, 2025): BTC Options Continue to See Call-Put Parity, With Lower Short-Term Volatility Expected

Dive into FLock, a decentralized platform that revolutionizes the way AI models are developed, trained and deployed.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to transform countless industries, but its development often raises questions about privacy, control and inclusivity. 

 is a unique decentralized platform that democratizes AI training, fine-tuning and inferencing. With its blockchain-powered infrastructure, FLock ensures transparency, security and community-driven decision-making, paving the way for AI models that align with established societal values. 

In this article, we’ll explore how FLock decentralizes AI training, its key features and its potential impact on developers, communities and users.

 platform that revolutionizes the way AI models are developed, trained and deployed. By leveraging blockchain technology and a novel approach called 

, FLock addresses critical issues in AI development, such as centralized control, lack of transparency and privacy concerns.

At its core, FLock’s mission is to democratize AI by enabling communities to participate directly in the creation and refinement of AI models. Through federated learning, FLock trains AI models across multiple decentralized devices or servers. This method ensures that data remains local, eliminating the need for raw data exchange while still enabling robust model training. By decentralizing the training process, FLock not only protects individual privacy, but also fosters a more inclusive ecosystem in which diverse contributors can collaborate.

What sets FLock apart is its integration of 

. This ensures that all contributions — whether data, compute power or feedback — are transparently recorded and fairly rewarded. Blockchain tech’s immutable ledger enhances trust among participants and safeguards the process against manipulation. Additionally, the platform’s on-chain incentive mechanisms encourage participation from a wide range of contributors, ensuring that rewards are distributed equitably.

Ultimately, FLock empowers communities to develop bespoke AI models tailored to their specific needs. By decentralizing the process and prioritizing transparency and collaboration, FLock breaks the monopoly of large corporations, creating an AI ecosystem that aligns with public ethics and societal values.

, an Oxford alumnus with a robust background in AI and blockchain technology. Sun, who serves as FLock's CEO, has an impressive career trajectory, having worked as the Director of AI for the Royal Bank of Canada and as an AI Research Fellow at Imperial College London. His vision for FLock stems from a deep understanding of both the technical and ethical challenges of AI development.

The founding team also includes other Oxford alumni, boasting over a decade of combined experience in AI research and the cryptocurrency industry. This team brings a collective blend of academic excellence and practical expertise that positions FLock to lead the decentralized AI movement.

FLock has successfully raised $11 million in funding across two rounds, reflecting strong investor confidence in its vision. In May 2024, FLock secured a $6 million seed round co-led by Lightspeed Faction and Tagus Capital, with additional backing from Digital Currency Group (DCG), Volt Capital, OKX Ventures and Inception Capital.

Later, in December 2024, FLock announced a $3 million successful funding round led by DCG and joined by prominent names like Animoca Brands, Fenbushi Capital, GnosisVC and GSR. These investments are being channelled into enhancing the platform’s testnet and federated learning client, accelerating FLock’s mission of enabling secure, collaborative AI development.

With this funding and over 1,500 nodes contributing from platforms like Numerai and Kaggle, FLock is rapidly scaling its impact on decentralized AI training.

FLock AI revolutionizes AI development through its decentralized training framework. This approach allows participants to contribute to AI model training without ever sharing their personal data. Instead, models are trained locally across devices using federated learning, which ensures that data remains with its owners while still enhancing the accuracy of the model overall. 

FLock’s reward system is designed to incentivize active participation. Contributors who provide data, computational power and/or feedback are compensated with FLOCK tokens, ensuring a fair distribution of rewards. 

FLock empowers its community through a robust governance framework. Decisions regarding AI model development, deployment and ethical considerations are driven by the community, ensuring alignment with established societal values. Through blockchain-based voting mechanisms, contributors can influence the direction of AI projects, fostering transparency and public accountability. 

FLock’s modular architecture allows contributors to participate in specific aspects of AI model development. Whether providing raw data or computational power or even refining algorithms, the platform enables a collaborative and scalable development process. 

At the core of FLock’s philosophy is its commitment to privacy and security. By leveraging blockchain technology, the platform ensures that no single entity controls the AI development process. Data remains local and protected by cryptographic measures, while the immutability of blockchain guarantees transparency in every transaction and model update. 

 begins with a blockchain and an AI layer.

The blockchain layer underpins FLock’s incentivization and security mechanisms.

The AI layer facilitates model training, refinement and deployment, leveraging both centralized and federated approaches.

Let’s have a look at the supply and demand for the FLOCK token.

FLock adopts a 1:2 ratio model between team/investors (33.3%) and community (66.7%), prioritizing community-driven growth and ecosystem expansion. The majority of tokens are allocated to incentivize user participation and long-term ecosystem success.

FLock aims to improve the future of AI development by decentralizing the training process and ensuring transparency, privacy and inclusivity. By leveraging blockchain and federated learning, FLock empowers communities to contribute to AI creation without compromising on privacy. Its innovative reward system and community-driven governance foster a fair and collaborative ecosystem. 

With significant backing and a growing network of contributors, FLock is positioning itself as a leader in decentralized AI, offering a more ethical and secure alternative to traditional AI development models. As it continues to scale, FLock is set to transform the way AI models are built and deployed.

 — and earn a share of a 10 million FLOCK prize pool. For more details, visit 

Intermediate

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FLock AI: Decentralized AI Training

In this tutorial, we’ll explore how you can complete a series of tasks in Network3 for Bybit Web3 Airdrop Arcade.

Task 1: Register for a Network3 Account and Connect Your Bybit Wallet 

: Navigate to the campaign page and click on the 

task. Click on the task, and Galxe will ask to redirect you to the Network3 register page.

: Register for a Network3 account using your email address. You may indicate a 

Task 2: Download the Network3 App and Run a Node for One Hour

 and choose your operating system to download the Network3 app.

 or powerbutton, depending upon which operating system you’re using. For ease of reference, we’ve used macOS and iOS as examples below.

: Keep running the node until the timer reaches 

Beginner

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How to Complete Network3 Tasks for Bybit Web3 Airdrop Arcade

Bybit launched the Bybit Merch Creative Challenge for university students worldwide, offering a $50,000 USDT prize pool.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.22% on Thursday, its fifth straight decline, with investors eyeing Friday’s economic updates. Coindesk Indices, an index measuring broader cryptocurrency market performance was up by 2.03%, with Bitcoin and Ether rising by 2.79% and 2.70%, respectively in the past 24 hours.

Today's top performer is XRP, which surged 1.9% following a rise in price driven by increased open interest and positive market sentiment.

Ripple (XRP), launched in August 2012, is a blockchain technology company focused on improving international payments with its cryptocurrency, XRP. XRP price surged due to increased open interest, a major XRP transfer, and market sentiment linked to Trump's inauguration. Bullish momentum is supported by high short liquidations, with key resistance levels to watch for further price movement.

Check Out the Latest Prices, Charts, and Data of 

 for university students worldwide, offering a $50,000 USDT prize pool. Participants can design exclusive Bybit merchandise, with submissions open until Jan. 15, 2025. Winners will be announced on Feb. 1, 2025, across four prize categories.

Yesterday, Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded a total inflow of $84.8M, driven by $107.9M from non-GBTC funds, partially offset by a $23.1M outflow from GBTC.

, offering an airdrop for participants who complete tasks like swapping and bridging using the Mango wallet. Points earned through tasks determine airdrop rewards. Join via the Mango wallet and follow steps on the testnet dashboard.

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Bybit Launches $50,000 Merch Design Challenge for University Students Worldwide

Indicators

Trading

The directional movement index (DMI) is a widely used technical indicator in financial markets for assessing trend direction and strength. 

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The directional movement index (DMI) is a widely used technical indicator in financial markets for assessing trend direction and strength. Developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr., it consists of three indicators: the positive directional indicator (+DI), the negative directional indicator (−DI) and the 

In this article, we’ll look at what the DMI is, what it tells you, and how to use it for trending and range-bound markets.

What Is the Directional Movement Index (DMI)?

The directional movement index (DMI) is a technical indicator widely used by traders in financial markets to assess whether upward pressure or downward pressure on price is more dominant.

 Developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr., the DMI also helps traders identify whether an asset is in a strong trend or a sideways consolidation phase.

The positive directional movement line (+DI) and negative directional movement line (−DI) are integral parts of the DMI. These indicators are used to gauge the strength of bullish and bearish trends, respectively.

The +DI measures the strength of an upward price trend, indicating the presence of bulls in the market. It calculates the difference between the current high and the previous high, but only if it’s positive. The resulting values are then smoothed over a specific period. The +DI can range from 0 to 100, with higher values suggesting a stronger bullish trend.

On the other hand, the −DI measures the strength of a downward price trend, signaling the presence of bears in the market. It follows a similar calculation as the +DI, but focuses on the difference between the current low and the previous low. Like the +DI, the −DI is also evened out over a particular period. Values range from 0 to 100, with higher values indicating a stronger bearish trend.

Conversely, if the −DI is higher than the +DI, it indicates that the bears are dominating the market, suggesting the potential for more downward pressure in price, and traders may choose to go 

The average directional index (ADX) is the optional third line of the directional movement indicator. It quantifies the trend's strength as identified by the +DI and −DI. Unlike the directional indicators, the ADX doesn’t differentiate between bullish or bearish trends, instead focusing on the overall strength of the trend, regardless of direction.

The ADX is calculated by averaging or smoothing the difference between the +DI and −DI values over a specified period. The resulting values range from 0 to 100, with higher readings indicating a stronger trend. Traders often use a threshold, such as 20, to determine whether a trend is significant enough to warrant their attention.

How to Calculate Directional Movement Index

The formula for the DMI appears intimidating. Fortunately, charting packages will automatically calculate this for you and apply it to a separate window at the bottom of your chart.

Calculating the DMI involves a series of steps that take into account the positive directional indicator (+DI), the negative directional indicator (−DI) and the average directional index (ADX). Here's a breakdown of the calculation process:

n = Number of periods (a common value is 14)

Step 1: Calculate the true range by finding the maximum absolute value of the following three values:

Step 2: With the true range in hand, compute the ATR using the formula: 

ATR = [(Previous ATR * (n − 1)) + True Range] / n periods.

Determine the Directional Movement (DM) for each period

Smooth the +DM and −DM values over a specified period (n):

 to smooth the +DM and −DM values individually over the chosen period.

 Divide the smoothed +DM and −DM values by the smoothed ATR values, and multiply by 100 to get the percentage values for +DI and −DI.

 Smooth the absolute value of the difference between the +DI and −DI over a specified period to obtain the ADX.

The DMI is a comprehensive indicator that reveals insights into market trends and their strength. Following are some key insights that the DMI indicator offers.

: DMI helps identify whether an asset is trending or in a sideways consolidation phase. By analyzing the +DI and −DI, traders can determine the prevailing trend. If +DI is above −DI, it suggests a potential uptrend, while the opposite indicates a possible downtrend.

: The DMI's ADX quantifies the strength of a trend, regardless of its direction. A rising ADX indicates a strong trend, while a declining ADX suggests a weakening trend or a period of consolidation. Traders can use ADX to assess the significance of a trend and make informed trading decisions.

: The DMI can help traders identify potential entry and exit points. During an uptrend, traders may consider entering long positions when the +DI crosses above −DI. Conversely, during a downtrend, a crossing of +DI below −DI may indicate a chance to enter short positions. Traders may also look for ADX readings above a certain threshold (e.g., 20) to confirm a trend's strength before making trading decisions.

The DMI indicator has a trend strength gauge and directional filter built into it. Follow the guidelines below when trading a trend:

First, determine if there’s a strong trend. Look for the ADX line to be rising and near 20.

Next, determine if the +DI or −DI lines are turning higher. The line that turns higher and crosses above the other determines your trend direction.

In this situation, you can use other technical tools to pinpoint the trade entry or place a buy breakout to position long, as Bitcoin is expected to rally. Indeed, Bitcoin experienced a significant rally by about 35% over the following month. 

A range is essentially a non-trend. Therefore, if the ADX is declining, it signals the trend is losing momentum, and the conditions for a range or reversal to develop are increasing.

Once the conditions exist for a range to develop, you can identify 

, and then look to buy at support and sell at resistance.

Additionally, a trader could consider an options strategy that capitalizes on sideways non-volatile pricing, such as a short strangle,

For the next month, Bitcoin prices did indeed consolidate between $18,600 and $20,400. A trader at that time would look to buy at support and sell at resistance.

Pros and Cons of the Directional Movement Index

The DMI offers several advantages for traders. First, it aids in identifying trends and providing valuable information for trend-following strategies. 

Additionally, the ADX component quantifies trend strength, helping traders gauge the significance of a trend. Furthermore, +DI and −DI crossovers serve as potential entry and exit signals, assisting traders in timing their trades effectively. 

However, there are some limitations to consider. The DMI is a lagging indicator, meaning it may generate delayed signals during periods of high market volatility after the market has already started trending. 

In addition, it can produce false signals, particularly in choppy or range-bound markets. If you suspect a range-bound market is developing, consider incorporating other technical analysis tools for timing entries.

Reflecting on these pros and cons, traders can make informed decisions when incorporating the DMI into their trading strategies.

In conclusion, the directional movement index (DMI) is a valuable technical indicator that traders use to assess price movement trends. Even though the DMI can help traders make well-timed trading decisions, they need to be mindful of the lagging nature of the DMI and the potential for false signals.

Directional Movement Index: How to Use the DMI Indicator

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